Can Human Day Traders Beat HFT Manipulation?

A man named Dan Sullivan, a former Chicago Mercantile Exchange floor trader, recently disclosed a manipulative experience. Sullivan bought and sold derivatives based LIBOR interest rate. Recently, Big Banks have been accused of manipulating the LIBOR rate. Back in 2008, Sullivan received a text message that indicated Lehman's was going under. Based on prior positioning with his derivatives, Sullivan expected to make one million dollars when the new LIBOR number came out the next morning. Knowing how the LIBOR figure is used and the likely collapse of Lehman, he was very sure of himself.

What happened that morning? The LIBOR number was mostly the same. There wasn't a significant increase or decrease. Sullivan was dumbfounded. In hindsight, it became clear - the banks had lied about the number. Many traders are suing because of the alleged deception.

Scott Patterson, Wall Street Journal report and author of the popular Dark Pools high frequency trading book, was recently interview by Brian Lehrer of NPR. High frequency trading computers are responsible for 60% to 70% of all trading today. As such, HFT trades make up the majority of the liquidity. These computers send in massive waves of orders to buy and sell futures, stocks, options, etc. Instead of humans handling orders, this incredibly fast pace has left regulators in the dust. While the markets are theoretically regulated by the FCC and CTFC, they lack the computing resources, manpower and funding to properly supervise.

Without regulation, you have manipulation. Let's say Greece defaults and a big move in the currency markets results. The high frequency algorithms will see this occur and positions will immediately change. When high volatility occurs, the HFT systems are able to pull out. Because of the liquidity caused by HFT, the markets would grind to a halt. Look up "splash crash" to see what researchers say about this hypothetical scenario. Sure, regulators could say that the HFT systems cannot pull out during a crisis, but again, this is a complex enforcement issue.

We will now look at a third manipulation scenario. Major news events and company press releases can greatly affect financial markets. This results in instant volatility across the world's most popular stocks, futures and currencies. Laws and policies are in place to prevent this type of information dissemination. What happens when an insider lets a trading friend know the Apple third-quarter profit figures prior to the public announcement? This trader friend can now place trades anticipating the financial reaction. This trader can also share this information with others. To leak, only a few seconds are required considering the speed at which we are able to communicate today. There are many hands announcements must pass through before they become public knowledge.

Retail traders, those who trade from home as a hobby or as fulltime income, are also at risk when it comes to manipulation. These traders must be aware of the instability imposed by high frequency trading. Humans looking to position themselves within a fast past world of automated, algorithmic buying and selling should consider a trading education. Such training teaches strategies that recognize manipulation and work alongside it.

High Frequency Trading is here to stay. Even though governments may improve trade monitoring technology, the speed at which automated systems develop far outpaces the cumbersome paradigm. Sure, governments recognize how HFT have become intertwined and necessary function of electronic trading.

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Why Most Traders and Day Traders Lose

Most traders and day traders are unprofitable. That is a simple fact. While the exact number of unprofitable traders and day traders is not known, most industry experts place the figure at somewhere between 80% and 90%. Yet, given these astonishing figures, year after year, more people try their hand at trading as a way to escape the corporate rat race.

Most people begin trading after they hear or read about someone's success at the endeavor and decide to try their own luck. This is one of the biggest reasons why most traders lose. They really have no clue how to trade profitably. Besides that, the individual's success they read about was likely only temporary.

Once they learn of someone's supposed success at trading or day trading, they may read a book about the subject, or subscribe to one of the publications about trading and learn of a trading strategy. In these magazines the prospective trader will often read about some magical indicator or trading strategy that should lead to significant profits. The trader then immediately puts the strategy to the test using real money, and quickly discovers that it really does not work as well as advertised. They then move on to the next strategy they read about in next month's issue.

This is similar to the process that an avid 20 handicap golfer will go through to improve their game. They are always looking for that one magical golf tip that will suddenly transform their awful golf swing into one that hits shots like Tiger Woods. They ignore the fact that the relatively minor swing changes that Tiger has made in his golf swing have taken him years to perfect with substantial hard work.

So, why is it that most traders and day traders actually lose? Most traders lose because they never develop a trading edge that gives them an advantage over other traders. Tiger's edge in the game of golf has never been his physical talent alone, but his mental strength. When he lost that belief in himself, his game suffered. He lost his edge, and it has taken nearly three years for him to regain that edge.

What exactly is an edge when it comes to trading? A trading edge can be one of a number of things, but it mainly boils down to having a strategy that the trader develops or learns that is proven to work over a long period of time, and the discipline to follow that strategy even when it is not performing well.

One example of this type of trading edge is the trend following system that Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt taught to a group of traders known as the Turtles back in the early 1980's. The system was used to trade in the futures markets, and was taught to a dozen or so individuals, many of whom to this day successfully manage money as commodity trading advisors. The strategy was demonstrated by this group to work well in the long run, but it came with the pitfall of large equity drawdowns at times. As a result, many other traders that learned the strategy did not have the discipline to stick with it.

The key to developing your edge as a trader is to learn all you can about the subject of trading, and then conduct your own research. This is the best way to develop the confidence in the strategies you intend to trade. With that confidence, you will be able to maintain the discipline to stick with those strategies, even while they go through their inevitable drawdown periods.

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